Notes on Saturday’s Three Big Preps
April 2nd, 2010By Jude T. Feld
Will Lookin At Lucky win the Santa Anita Derby (G1) as easily as he would capture the Derby Day 5K?
To read our Kentucky Derby Radar – Chapter 5 click here.
With four weeks to the big dance it is make or break for many three-year-olds competing along the testing Triple Crown trail. All eyes will be on Eskendereya in New York and Lookin At Lucky in California as they seem to have the inside track, but rest assured, by Saturday evening, the Kentucky Derby (G1) picture will be more clear…or more muddied.
WOOD (G1) – AQUEDUCT RACE 9
With four colts who are on a lot of Kentucky Derby (G1) top 10 lists, this race is the most anticipated prep of the season. ESKENDEREYA was visually impressive crushing the Fountain of Youth (G2) field at Gulfstream Park in his last start. That race was flattered when two of his rivals from that event came back to finish 1-2 in the Florida Derby (G1), well ahead of the field. The son of Giant’s Causeway has worked once a week in March to maintain his fitness and seems on the verge of another top effort. AWESOME ACT ran a solid race in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G2) and was given the rest of the winter off. His comeback victory in the Gotham (G3) caused quite a buzz in New York, so much so that second-place finisher Yawanna Twist traveled to Hawthorne to compete in the easier Illinois Derby (G3) Saturday. When you compare pace figures from the Fountain of Youth (G2) and the Gotham (G3), a very slight advantage goes to AWESOME ACT and his morning line price of 9/2 far exceeds the 4/5 offered on ESKENDEREYA, so value players may want to hop aboard. SCHOOLYARD DREAMS exits the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) rodeo, which he lost by a gnat’s ass. He has paired double-digit Brisnet speed figures – a positive sign – in his last two starts and could move forward today with his best effort. JACKSON BEND has never been worse than second in eight lifetime starts. He is a little suspect at a mile and an eighth with Carson City on his top line and Tabasco Cat on the bottom side. There is no question about his heart however and Hall of Fame trainer Nick Zito is no stranger to upsets in the Big Apple.
ILLINOIS DERBY (G3) – HAWTHORNE RACE 7
AMERICAN LION showed a lot of promise as a two-year-old but has yet to strut his stuff at three. Exiting 2009 with a Hollywood Prevue (G3) victory had him on everybody’s lips as a logical Derby prospect. His third-place finish in the Robert Lewis (G2) at Santa Anita was respectable enough, but when he failed to move forward in the San Felipe (G2) his followers started to jump ship. Trainer Eoin Harty added blinkers to his equipment for that race and the son of Lion Heart never settled and found his best stride. The shades come off today and jockey David Flores takes the reins. With a lack of early speed types entered here look for the ‘LION to be allowed to use his natural speed from the rail and take these wire-to-wire. The aforementioned YAWANNA TWIST shows up in Chicago after a nifty second-place effort to Awesome Act in the Gotham (G3). That was his first effort around two turns and he managed a triple-digit Brisnet speed figure and a triple-digit late pace figure so he can be considered a legitimate threat. TURF MELODY has shown some indications of brilliance but intersperses them with non-descript efforts. His trainer H. Graham Motion is one of the best and his jockey Jeremy Rose has ridden him to victory in the past. They just need the colt to show up.
SANTA ANITA DERBY (G1) – SANTA ANITA RACE 6
Millionaire LOOKIN AT LUCKY has been the “King of the Crop†all along. He would be undefeated save for a narrow to defeat at the hands of Vale of York, from a horrendous post with a troubled trip in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). He overcame trouble down the backside in the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn Park in his 2010 debut, to edge his old rival Noble Promise. The son of Smart Strike has been training well since then and really doesn’t have much worrisome competition to face here. ALPHIE’S BEST is a California-bred who has shown steady improvement for trainer Alexis Barba, a disciple of the late, great Eddie Gregson, who won the Kentucky Derby (G1) with Gato Del Sol. Like that one, he is capable of big finishes and should be moving well in the drive under jockey Alex Solis. The son of Tribal Rule will need some help with the early pace to set up his closing charge, but it is doubtful that SIDNEY’S CANDY will be allowed to set pedestrian fractions again. Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella has been training SETSUKO like he means business this time. Two bullet works should have the son of Pleasantly Perfect cranked up for a big race but if they don’t get the job done, his Derby dreams are shot.
